When you set a goal in REN, the app gives you a predicted race time. This prediction is meant to be realistic, adaptive, and supportive of long-term progress. It is not a promise or a guarantee.
What REN Uses to Predict Your Race Time
REN combines multiple sources of information to estimate how fast you could run your goal distance.
1. Onboarding Information
This gives REN a starting point:
Your personal bests (PRs)
Your experience level
Your availability (how much time you can train)
Personal details such as age, height, weight, and optional heart rate data
For example:
A beginner often has more room for improvement than an experienced runner.
A runner with more available training time may progress differently than someone with limited time.
2. Training Data
As you train, REN learns from:
Completed workouts
Feedback such as RPE and how sessions felt
Updated thresholds including Critical Speed, VO₂max pace, and Aerobic Threshold
This allows the prediction to become more accurate over time.
Why the Prediction Can Change
Your predicted race time is dynamic and not fixed.
It can change because of:
Improved thresholds, which can lead to a faster prediction
New personal bests, which update performance expectations
Lower thresholds or signs of fatigue, which can result in a slower prediction
Important nuance:
A faster PR combined with a goal that is now very close can result in the predicted time staying the same.
Progress is rarely linear and small fluctuations are normal.
Why REN Uses Ranges Instead of Exact Times
REN always works with a range rather than a single finish time.
This is because race-day performance depends on many factors, including:
Weather and temperature
Nutrition and hydration
Sleep and stress
Course profile and conditions
Your actual finish time will always depend on more than fitness alone.
Why the Prediction Does Not Change After Every Workout
Fitness does not improve from one single session.
REN avoids changing predictions after every workout because that would be misleading.
Some platforms update predictions constantly, which can create unrealistic expectations.
REN looks for trends over time rather than short-term spikes.
What If the Prediction Feels Too Ambitious or Not Ambitious Enough?
That is completely normal, especially early on.
REN needs time to get to know you.
As you train consistently, the prediction will adjust naturally.
Focus on executing the training plan rather than the number itself.
Remember: The predicted race time is a guideline. Give REN time, stay consistent, and let the data build. The prediction will follow.
Important Update: February 13, 2025
We identified and fixed an issue where goal predicted race times were giving overly ambitious estimations for some users.
What changed:
- Predicted race times are now more conservative and realistic
- Some users may have noticed their goal predicted time adjusted overnight
- This was an intentional correction to improve prediction accuracy
This fix ensures your predicted race time better reflects your current fitness level and training capacity. The prediction will continue to adapt as you progress through your training plan. Focus on consistent training—the prediction will follow your actual performance data.